Rubella epidemic model
Rubella is known to possibly cause congenital rubella syndrome (CRS) when fetus are infected during early pregnancy. Thus, to prevent major epidemics, it is essential to strategically vaccinate to strengthen the herd immunity. Simulation models and data assimilation technique to estimate epidemics, and validate vaccination effects are in the process of development by our team to tackle this task using mathematical models.
The epidemic of rubella in Japan from 2012-13. As an indication of the geographical difference of the epidemic size, Tokyo, Hokkaido, and Yamaguchi prefectures are shown. We compare the time series of incidence until present and the estimated future incidence from the result of assimilating simulation model.