Confronting the future with real-time detection of premonitory signs and forecasting
Welcome to our CREST project “Detecting premonitory signs and real-time forecasting of pandemic using big biological data”
We continuously face the news of various emerging infectious diseases, including diseases caused by a novel influenza virus, Ebola virus and dengue virus. It is enchanting that recent emerging diseases tend to spatially spread through the international airline travels, and the rapidity of spatiotemporal evolution is continuously accelerated. In addition to the social feature of complications, it has been known as difficult to control influenza virus, because its antigenic types continue to evolve rapidly escaping from immunity in humans.
In our ongoing big-data research project, we aim to achieve sensitive detection of any premonitory signs of a pandemic and realize a real-time forecasting of infectious disease epidemic in our daily life, thereby elucidating the most effective countermeasures against emerging infectious diseases, most notably, influenza. Analyzing the large scale biological data including epidemiological and genetic data of infections, we will (i) devise a real-time prediction model of an epidemic, (ii) establish a risk prediction system of premonitory signs of a pandemic, and (iii) take advantages of early detection and forecasts in infectious disease controls. Eventually, we aim to practicalize the early detection and forecasting in our daily life.